Analysts from Infagro predict that imports of Polish cheese to Ukraine will experience a significant increase as soon as the borders between the countries are unblocked. Currently, imports of cheese to the country are small, but problems with the borders could lead to the import of significant volumes of Polish products.

The warehouses of Ukrainian cheese producers remain modest, but they are trying to maintain high production volumes, which leads to higher purchase prices for milk. Since the beginning of the fall, prices for Ukrainian cheese have risen by 5% per month due to higher production costs.

Border lockdowns are pushing Ukraine to increase its own cheese production, but analysts point to the possibility of a significant reduction in production in 2024.

Recently, imported cheeses, in particular Polish ones, have been occupying a significant part of the shelves of Ukrainian retailers. This creates significant competitive pressure on Ukrainian cheese producers. It is worth noting that, when comparing prices, Ukrainian cheeses are more expensive than their imported counterparts.

The high cost of Ukrainian cheese is driven by rising prices for raw milk. Declining cow productivity and reduced milk yields in the market have led to a limited supply of raw milk and increased competition among processors, which has led to higher prices.