Ukraine may face the lowest wheat harvest in 13 years in the 2025/26 season, Reuters predicts, citing data from the US agricultural attaché in Kyiv. According to estimates, the grain volume will be only 17.9 million tons - 23% less than last year.

Such a significant reduction in production is explained primarily by extremely dry soils during the spring sowing campaign. Lack of moisture, combined with low profitability of cultivation, forced farmers to reduce the area under wheat in order to minimize the risk of losses.

However, experts draw attention to the possibility of a revival of yields due to favorable weather conditions in May-June. If rains provide sufficient moisture to the fields, the actual harvest may be higher than current estimates, which will at least somewhat alleviate the situation.

Despite this, Ukraine expects a significant reduction in wheat exports in the next marketing year. According to forecasts, grain exports will be less than half of the record figure of previous seasons, which puts pressure on foreign exchange earnings and the budget of agricultural producers.

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Ukrainian farmers have already felt not only logistical obstacles to grain exports, but also the degradation of production capacities due to the destruction of infrastructure and mine threats in the fields. This, in turn, affects the ability to cultivate and sow large areas in a timely manner.

The government and agricultural associations should prepare support for the domestic market: from maintaining minimum sown areas to introducing fertilizer and irrigation subsidy programs. Not only domestic food security, but also Ukraine's ability to restore its role as one of the world's leading grain exporters will depend on timely decisions.