As of February 10, 2025, Ukraine exported 78 thousand tons of soybeans, which indicates market stability. Soybean stocks as of February 1 reached 3.4 million tons, which significantly exceeds the previous season's indicators (2.6-2.7 million tons). This creates the need to intensify sales in February and April, since in May-June traders' attention will switch to the new grain and rapeseed harvest.

Such forecasts were voiced by analysts of the PUSK agricultural cooperative, ProAgro Group reports. The cooperative noted that the presence of significant soybean stocks in warehouses is a positive factor for the market, but with the approach of spring, demand for soybeans may decrease, which will cause certain price fluctuations.

This year, the Ukrainian soybean market remains stable, but global factors also have an impact. For example, high humidity in Brazil is delaying the soybean harvest, which could lead to significant losses in the fields. This could change global trade balances and affect soybean prices, particularly on the export market.

Analysts note that if crop losses in Brazil and Argentina are confirmed, this could become an additional factor supporting soybean prices. Already now, seasonal models show that by the end of February - beginning of March the price could reach $400-405 per ton on a CPT basis, and potentially even $410-415 per ton.

On the domestic market of Ukraine, soybean prices remain stable. The cost is $388-393 per ton at ports and UAH 17,500-17,700/ton at processors. However, the main restraining factor is the weak soybean meal market, which complicates competition between processors and exporters.

In the coming months, some traders may try to expand their margins, especially from May-June, when the focus will shift to the new harvest. PUSK analysts emphasize that similar situations have already been observed on the market, so it is important to be prepared for possible price fluctuations that may affect the overall situation.