Growth of imports of dairy products in Ukraine: Impact on the market and consumers

In October of this year, Ukraine registered a record volume of dairy product imports, creating numerous challenges for consumers and domestic producers. According to the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UKAB), the volume of imports amounted to 6.08 thousand tons, which is 27.8% more than in the previous month and 35% more than in October 2022, highlighting the highest figure since March in 2022.

The analysis shows that all categories of dairy products have experienced an increase, in particular, cheeses come to the fore with a volume of 3.2 thousand tons. A double increase in butter imports was also recorded to 619 tons, the highest figure since November 2021.

Interestingly, according to the analysis of Maksym Hopka from UKAB, this increase in imports will not lead to significant changes in the price aspect, especially in connection with the significant contribution of imported cheeses, which can exist as an independent category without affecting price dynamics.

According to Hopka, dairy producers can expect unfavorable competition in the domestic market, as imported cheeses do not exceed the cost of domestic ones, posing new challenges to domestic producers.

Ukrainian consumers will have a wide choice of imported dairy products, but producers must quickly adapt to new conditions, maintaining competitiveness and product quality in conditions of increased imports.

The analyst adds that the increase in dairy imports is due to a seasonal increase in demand caused by the stable level of cheese and butter prices in Europe, while domestic prices for domestic products have been rising for a long time due to a shortage of raw milk created by the summer heat, which negatively affected production.

Experts see that increasing the availability of cheap imports can force domestic producers to lower prices, the purpose of which is to avoid losses in the competition.

Regarding the export of dairy products from Ukraine, the volume remains stable. In October 2023, Ukrainian producers exported 8.25 thousand tons, maintaining the figures of last year. However, export revenue decreased by 19% to $226.94 million.

Prices for dairy products in Ukraine increased in October, with the exception of drinking yogurt. Prices are forecast to continue to rise due to a shortage of raw milk and rising purchase prices. Experts see the greatest price increase and shortage in butter, which may increase in price by 20-25% compared to summer figures.