In the second half of January, milk purchase prices in Ukraine continue to fall, which is causing concern among producers. The main reasons were the surplus of raw milk on the domestic market and a decrease in demand from dairy processing enterprises. This was reported by the press service of the Milk Producers Association.

The situation on external markets also played a significant role in the decline in prices. In particular, the reduction in butter prices abroad led to a decrease in exports of dairy products, such as butter, cheeses and condensed milk, in December 2024. This, in turn, increased the pressure on the domestic market.

According to the analyst of the Milk Producers Association, Georgy Kukhaleyshvili, as of January 20, the average purchase price of extra-grade milk was UAH 18.40/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.20 less than a month ago. In different farms, the price varies from UAH 17.50 to UAH 18.70/kg. The price of premium milk fell to UAH 18.05/kg, and that of first-grade milk to UAH 16.95/kg.

In general, the weighted average price of the three grades of milk decreased to UAH 17.80/kg, which is 82 kopecks less than in December. This drop is closely related to the situation on the butter market, which in 2024 was the main driver of milk price growth. The decrease in world butter prices led to a decrease in demand for raw milk.

An important factor is also the reduction in domestic demand for fermented milk products. Due to the increase in food prices, the purchasing power of the population is decreasing, which negatively affects the market. Additional pressure is created by the import of cheeses, which forces Ukrainian producers to reduce prices for their products, which, in turn, reduces the cost of raw materials.

Experts predict that during the "big milk" season (May-August), prices for extra-grade milk may fall to 17.50 UAH/kg. At the same time, a further decrease is unlikely due to new price corridors on the world market. They are formed by the increase in farmers' costs for feed, fuel and compliance with environmental standards. This may become a stabilizing factor for the milk market in Ukraine.