The combined financial indicators of the ten largest grain traders in Ukraine in 2025 show a noticeable decline. The total revenue of the companies amounted to about UAH 180 billion, which is UAH 38.8 billion less than a year earlier. At the same time, the industry records a deterioration in profitability: six of the ten largest players ended the year with losses.

Such data follows from the reporting analyzed in the YouControl system. Analytics show that the decline in revenues is systemic and is primarily associated with a reduction in physical volumes of grain exports.

The largest losses were recorded among large international traders. ADM Ukraine reduced its turnover by UAH 13.7 billion, Cargill by UAH 11.5 billion, CFG Trading by approximately UAH 6 billion, Bunge by more than UAH 5 billion, and Louis Dreyfus Company Ukraine by UAH 4.2 billion.

The main factor behind the decline is the decrease in grain exports. In the 2024/2025 season, Ukraine exported about 40.6 million tons of grain, while in the 2025/2026 marketing year, the volumes decreased by about 20–25%, or by 6–7 million tons. This is critical for grain trading, since income directly depends on the volume of physical deliveries.

In parallel, business profitability has also deteriorated significantly. The largest losses in 2025 were recorded by Nibulon (–1.8 billion UAH) and ADM Ukraine (–1.2 billion UAH). Experts explain this by the low margin of the industry: even with high grain prices, a trader's earnings can be about $1 per ton.

According to KSE Agrocenter analyst Pavel Martyshev, grain trading traditionally operates with a minimum margin, and in 2025 the situation became even more complicated due to reduced volumes and increased competition. An additional pressure factor was the emergence of a more aggressive pricing policy of large players.

Competition is intensifying in the market between international corporations of the ABCD group (ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus), large Ukrainian agroholdings and medium-sized traders. This forms three levels of the market and increases price pressure, especially on the level of profitability, not income.

Large companies are increasingly using a dumping strategy, selling grain with a minimum or even negative margin in order to maintain market share. The situation is also exacerbated by the system of internal KPIs, where management focuses primarily on sales volumes, not on profit.

Additional pressure is created by rising costs throughout the supply chain. Farmers are holding grain due to low prices, logistics are becoming more expensive due to the risks of Ukrzaliznytsia tariffs, and the cost of transshipment in ports has increased to $10-11 per ton. At the same time, world prices remain low due to excess supply and global competition.

In these conditions, traders find themselves under the simultaneous pressure of high domestic costs, poor harvests, and low world prices. This creates a structural imbalance in the industry, which is exacerbated by logistical constraints and market volatility.

Large players have already begun to change their business models. In particular, according to Volodymyr Slavinsky, Nibulon’s trade director, the company is focusing on diversifying markets, developing international trading, and increasing the efficiency of partnerships, gradually moving to a global work model.

Against this background, Eridon demonstrated exceptional results, increasing revenue to UAH 35.6 billion and becoming the market leader. Its success is explained by the diversification of its business: in addition to trading, the company develops agricultural distribution, logistics, processing and services for farmers.

An additional indicator of market changes was the decrease in the volume of grain cargo transportation by rail through western border crossings to EU countries in the first week of April. This indicates further volatility in export flows and instability of logistics routes.