In the 2025–2026 marketing year, Ukraine will face a decrease in sugar exports by almost a fifth. According to analysts of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club, the volume of deliveries abroad will amount to about 505 thousand tons, which is 19.7% less than in the previous season.

This decline in exports occurs against the background of a general reduction in production. According to forecasts, in the 2025–2026 MY, Ukraine will produce approximately 1.3 million tons of sugar. This is 26.3% less than a year earlier, and also 12.6% below the average production level over the past five years.

One of the key reasons for the negative dynamics was the decrease in the area under sugar beets. In the current season, they decreased to 199 thousand hectares, which is 21.6% less than in the previous marketing year. Compared to the five-year average, the drop is 12.4%, which indicates a systemic trend towards a decrease in the cultivation of this crop.

External factors also have a significant impact on the industry. In particular, the introduction of quotas for the supply of Ukrainian sugar to the European Union countries has limited export opportunities to a traditionally important market. In addition, logistical difficulties complicate access to other sales areas, which further puts pressure on external sales volumes.

Despite this, farmers were able to partially compensate for the decrease in areas by increasing yields. In the 2025–2026 MY, it reached 49.3 tons per hectare, which is 2% more than in the previous season and 4.4% higher than the average for the last five years. Thanks to this, the total gross harvest of sugar beet is expected to be 10.2 million tons.

The trend towards a decrease in exports began even earlier. After the introduction of restrictions by the EU in the 2024–2025 MY, the volume of foreign supplies decreased to 629 thousand tons, which is 14.2% less than in the previous period. In the next season, this figure is predicted to continue to decline.

The geography of exports has also changed. The largest importers of Ukrainian sugar have become African countries, which account for 32% of supplies, as well as the Middle East with a share of 29%. At the same time, the role of the European Union has significantly decreased - its share is only 17%.

In addition to external markets, changes are also taking place within the country. Domestic sugar consumption decreased from 1.1 million tons to 0.9 million tons in 2025–2026. The main reason for this reduction is the decrease in the population of Ukraine, which directly affects demand.