The Ukrainian wheat market in the 2025–2026 marketing year is demonstrating atypical dynamics, which may lead to the formation of significant transitional grain residues. As of nine months of the season (July–June), export volumes are significantly lagging behind expected indicators, which is causing concern among agricultural market participants.

According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UKAB) with reference to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, Ukraine exported 9.7 million tons of wheat during this period. This is only 55% of the projected volume of supplies to external markets, which is significantly lower than the expected level for this stage of the season.

Analysts note that the current situation is atypical: for 75% of the duration of the marketing year, it was possible to realize slightly more than half of the export potential. Compared to the same period last year, this figure decreased by approximately 25%, indicating a noticeable slowdown in external supplies of Ukrainian grain.

One of the key reasons for this decline was the decline in demand from the European Union. Thanks to its own harvest of 144 million tons, the EU actually fully met its domestic needs, which significantly limited the possibilities for Ukrainian exports to this market. As a result, traders had to reorient supplies, in particular to African countries.

At the same time, the export rate in recent months has remained consistently low. For four months, the average monthly volume of shipments has been at the level of about 600 thousand tons, which is not enough to achieve the projected indicators by the end of the season.

If this trend continues, Ukraine may face record transitional wheat residues. According to experts, by the end of the marketing year they are capable of reaching 7 million tons. This will exceed even the indicators of the 2021/22 season, when exports were significantly limited due to the complete blockade of seaports.

Thus, the wheat market is entering a phase of increased uncertainty. Further development of the situation will largely depend on the restoration of demand in traditional sales markets or the successful expansion of the geography of exports, which will avoid excessive accumulation of grain within the country.