The 2026 sowing campaign in Ukraine will be affected by several challenges at once - weather conditions, a shortage of mineral fertilizers and logistical restrictions. According to preliminary estimates, the shortage of fertilizers could lead to a shortfall of up to 10% of the grain crop harvest. In general, the expected harvest will be approximately 50 million tons, while no significant changes in the structure of sown areas are predicted. This was announced by Pavlo Koval, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC).

One of the key factors that may affect the sowing is the condition of winter crops after wintering. According to Koval, although large-scale changes in the structure of sown areas should not be expected, certain adjustments are possible depending on the wintering and weather conditions.

Winter rapeseed is especially at risk. Up to a third of the crops of this crop are at risk due to insufficient snow cover. In the southern regions, there are already reports of freezing of the central shoot of plants, which can lead to losses at individual enterprises. About 1.1 million hectares have been sown with winter rape in Ukraine. In the event of partial freezing, rape is left in the field with subsequent top dressing, because re-sowing is much more expensive.

Winter wheat is no less sensitive to weather conditions. An ice crust has formed in the southern regions and in the south of the central part of the country, which makes it difficult for air to reach the plants and can damage them. Thaws and night frosts have an additional negative effect.

The shortage of ammonium nitrate, necessary for top dressing, is of particular concern. Today, the deficit is estimated at up to 70% of the need, as domestic chemical enterprises do not have time to produce fertilizers due to the energy crisis and high gas prices, and imports in large quantities are limited due to military bans on the import of explosives. Some farms that have built up reserves in advance have already started fertilizing, but most are waiting for supplies.

As an alternative, the expert suggests using other types of fertilizers, such as impure saltpeter or lime saltpeter, which do not pose a threat and can be imported in acceptable volumes. According to Koval, delaying the decision could cause a shortage of grain of up to 10% or more.

Regarding the prospects, in the event of winter wheat freezing, it is possible to sow with spring wheat, which will reduce the quality of the harvest, or with barley and other crops. Similarly, damaged barley or rapeseed crops can be replanted and replaced with corn, soybeans, or sunflowers. Spring rapeseed is sown in smaller volumes — about 150-200 thousand hectares, while winter rapeseed is sown on 1.1 million hectares.

Thus, the 2026 sowing campaign requires quick decisions on fertilizer supply and careful monitoring of weather risks to minimize crop losses and ensure the stability of agricultural production.