Despite the difficult energy situation and power outages, food prices in Ukraine are growing more slowly than expected. Power outages are forcing manufacturers and retail chains to switch to generators, which significantly increases the costs of production, storage, and logistics of food products. However, this factor has not led to a sharp price jump due to limited effective demand.

As economist and executive director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin explains, food prices are constantly rising, but electricity is only one of the factors of inflation. Storing vegetables in warehouses and operating freezers on generators significantly increase the cost, and businesses are trying to pass these costs on to the end consumer. However, the possibilities for this are limited.

According to the expert, there is a clear “price ceiling” on the market, which is determined by the purchasing power of the population. The manufacturer cannot set a price higher than the one the buyer is willing to pay. Against the backdrop of declining incomes, business is forced to find a balance between the desire to maintain profitability and the realities of consumer demand.

Assessing the prospects for individual product categories, Pendzin notes that sharp price jumps are not expected in the bread market. He calls forecasts of a possible 20% increase in price an exaggeration. A realistic scenario assumes a stable increase in cost at 1–1.5% per month without shock changes.

Prices for meat and eggs, despite general inflation, will also remain relatively stable. According to the economist, in the event of an excessive increase in the cost of chicken or pork, consumers simply reduce consumption, which automatically restrains further price increases. The market reacts quickly to changes in demand.

The situation on the dairy market is more complicated. Ukrainian producers are forced to compete with cheaper imports, particularly from Poland, so they cannot raise prices sharply so as not to lose buyers. The increase in price will be moderate. At the same time, butter, which fell in price in January under the influence of global trends, will again show a tendency to rise in price in February.

On the vegetable market, the increase in the price of the so-called “borscht set” is explained by high storage costs in conditions of energy restrictions. At the same time, potatoes remain approximately 20% cheaper than last year, thanks to a good harvest in 2025. The appearance of imported potatoes in Ukrainian stores is not expected before April.

As for sunflower oil, the expert predicts a possible increase in price to about 100 hryvnias per liter. However, an increase to 120 hryvnias is considered unlikely, since domestic demand is unable to support such a price. According to him, the market will quickly react by reducing sales volumes.

Oleg Pendzin also categorically rejects calls for panic buying of long-term storage products. He emphasizes that Ukraine has never had a systemic food shortage, and there is currently no reason to accumulate strategic stocks of canned food or cereals.

In general, the inflation rate for January is expected to be within 2–2.5%. The situation remains difficult, but manageable. The key restraining factor for prices is not so much the real cost of production or the desire of businesses to raise prices, but rather the limited financial capabilities of the population.