Ukrainian wheat exports in the period from July to December of the 2025/26 season amounted to 7.86 million tons, which is less than 9.86 million tons a year earlier. Changes in the market are associated with the transition from traditional exports to the EU to a more competitive environment and logistical constraints.

ASAP Agri analysts note that the narrowing of Ukraine’s export window was due to a number of factors: delayed harvest, surpluses on the world market, the return of EU quotas and periodic disruptions in the operation of ports and logistics chains. This forced Ukrainian exporters to quickly reorient trade flows.

As a result, wheat supplies to the EU decreased sharply. In July-December 2025/26, Ukraine exported only 507 thousand tons to the EU, or about 6% of total exports, compared with 3.37 million tons a year earlier. Spain remained the largest buyer in the EU, but its imports fell from 2.3 million tons to 276 thousand tons, while Italy reduced purchases from 400 thousand to 157 thousand tons.

With reduced access to the European market, North Africa has become the main consumer of Ukrainian wheat. According to analysts, in July-December 2025/26, deliveries to this region reached 3.56 million tons, or 45% of total wheat exports, which is almost twice as much as in the previous season (2.15 million tons, 22%).

Egypt led the trend, increasing purchases from 800,000 tonnes to 2.03 million tonnes, while Algeria increased imports to 1.2 million tonnes from 740,000 tonnes. Other countries in the region, including Yemen, also significantly expanded imports, reaching 540,000 tonnes from 290,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Southeast Asia, on the other hand, experienced a decline in demand due to stiff competition from Australia and high global supplies. Exports fell to 2.2 million tonnes (28%). The largest reductions in purchases were seen in Vietnam (from 820 to 520,000 tonnes), Thailand (from 640 to 170,000 tonnes) and Tunisia (from 450 to 250,000 tonnes). Indonesia remained a key market, although volumes fell slightly to 1.4 million tons from 1.55 million tons a year earlier.

Thus, North Africa became a strategic destination for Ukrainian wheat in the first half of the season, partially compensating for losses in the European market and ensuring stable exports in difficult global competition.