The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has published its forecast for the grain and oilseed harvest for 2025. According to experts, farmers can harvest 81.4 million tons of grain, which exceeds the 2024 figure of 79 million tons, ProAgro Group reports.

Under an optimistic scenario, exports in the 2025/2026 season could reach 49 million tons, which is 2.3 million tons more than in the previous year. At the same time, the UGA emphasizes that this forecast depends on the ability to resolve logistical problems caused by constant Russian strikes on critical infrastructure: energy, railways and seaports. Damage to facilities and electricity shortages limit the capacity of transport routes, which may restrain the country's export potential.

Regarding individual crops, wheat is forecast at 22.5 million tons, which is only slightly more than last year (22.4 million tons), potential exports will be about 16.5 million tons. Barley is expected at 4.9 million tons (2024 — 5.6 million tons), exports are possible within 2.3 million tons.

Corn may show a record harvest — 32 million tons against 25.9 million in 2024, thanks to favorable weather conditions. Potential exports of the crop — 25 million tons, but this is possible only with stable logistics. Sunflower is forecast at 11.5 million tons (2024 — 12.8 million tons), with almost the entire harvest (11.4 million tons) to be processed domestically, and only 50 thousand tons will be exported.

Rapeseed can yield 3.2 million tons (2024 - 3.8 million tons), of which 2.1 million tons will be exported, the rest will be processed in Ukraine. Soybean, due to the reduction in sown areas and lower yields, may amount to 5 million tons (2024 - 6.8 million tons), potential exports - 2.5 million tons, the rest will remain for domestic processing due to legislative restrictions.

UZA also published the outlook for 2026. Given the existing sown areas for winter crops and the forecast for spring crops, the potential harvest next year is estimated at 84.5 million tons. Under favorable conditions, Ukraine could export about 50 million tons of grain and oilseed crops.

The forecast demonstrates that the Ukrainian agricultural sector retains significant production potential, but the key factor for realizing export opportunities remains stable logistics and protection of critical infrastructure. Without these conditions, even high yields may not produce the expected economic effect.