Purchase prices for Ukrainian wheat have been falling over the past week, which is associated with increased risks in the Black Sea region and changes in the world market. Russia's threats to intensify attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships calling at them have led to a speculative increase in stock market quotes for wheat and an increase in the cost of ship insurance. These factors have negatively affected domestic grain prices, according to the Ukrainian Electronic Grain Exchange.

According to the exchange, purchase prices for food wheat have decreased by $2-5 per ton and are $217-220/t (10,450-10,600 UAH/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports. Feed wheat fell by $1-2/t to $210-212/t (UAH 10,150-10,250/t) delivered to ports. FOB wheat, when the seller bears the costs and responsibilities until loading onto the ship, is offered for $228-229/t, which remains a competitive price on the world market.

World wheat markets are currently under the influence of opposing factors. On the one hand, speculative growth in futures quotes caused by risks in the Black Sea is pushing prices up. On the other hand, fundamental factors, in particular record grain production forecasts in key exporting countries, are creating downward pressure on prices in the medium term.

Over the past seven days, global exchanges have seen December futures rise: Chicago (SRW) +1.7% to $197.6/t, Kansas City (HRW) +0.7% to $191.4/t, Minneapolis (HRS) +2.2% to $214/t, Paris (Euronext) +2% to €193/t ($225/t). Such fluctuations reflect the markets’ attempts to balance geopolitical risks with harvest forecasts.

Grain production forecasts confirm the trend toward oversupply. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised its 2025/26 harvest forecast to a record 25.5 million tons, up 38% from the previous season. ABARES experts have increased the estimate of wheat production in Australia by 5.3% to 35.6 million tons. In Canada, the forecast is expected to increase to 38.49 million tons, which exceeds the USDA estimate (37 million tons).

Analysts note that short-term fluctuations in stock market quotes do not change the general trend of decreasing prices for Ukrainian wheat. Maintaining stable exports requires simultaneous control of risks in ports and adaptation to global production trends in order to avoid significant losses for the Ukrainian agricultural sector.

The situation remains dynamic: the impact of geopolitics and changes in harvest forecasts continue to create uncertainty in the market, and Ukrainian exporters are closely monitoring quotes and are ready to respond to fluctuations in world prices.