Global production of major oilseeds in the 2025/26 marketing year is undergoing noticeable adjustments: soybeans and sunflowers are showing a decline, while rapeseed is growing. Despite this, global oilseed prices continue to decline. These trends are evidenced by updated data from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Ministry of Agriculture (USDA), published by the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine.

According to analysts, the overall forecast for global oilseed production has been revised downwards. In particular, soybean production is decreasing by 4.1 million tons - the result of lower harvests in the US, Ukraine and India. Sunflower is also showing a decline: minus 1 million tons compared to previous estimates. The main reasons for the decrease were the expected weaker harvests in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and EU countries. The negative trend is partially offset by Argentina, where the harvest forecast has been improved.

Instead, rapeseed was the only crop for which analysts raised production expectations. The global forecast increased by 1.31 million tons due to better results in the EU, Australia, Ukraine and the UK. Thus, European farmers will receive about 20.2 million tons of rapeseed, which is 0.55 million tons more than previous estimates. Ukraine is increasing production to 3.56 million tons, Australia - to 6.7 million tons. For Canada, the forecast remains unchanged - 20 million tons.

The expected decrease in soybean and sunflower yields also affects global processing indicators. The world crushing volume will decrease by 1.58 million tons - to 578.37 million tons. The processing of soybean and sunflower is decreasing, while rapeseed is increasing. World oilseed ending stocks will increase by 2.75 million tons to 142.26 million tons, but soybean stocks will decrease.

Analyzing the situation with soybeans in more detail, the USDA forecasts production at 421.75 million tons, which is minus 4.1 million tons. The largest adjustments are for the United States (115.75 million tons), Ukraine (6.2 million tons), and India (10 million tons). World consumption will also decrease, to 421.54 million tons, mainly due to lower demand from Argentina. In contrast, soybean exports will increase slightly, to 188 million tons, mainly due to supplies from Brazil and Argentina. Ending soybean stocks will decrease to 121.99 million tons.

World sunflower production this season will be 54.26 million tons, which is 1 million less than the previous forecast. The most noticeable crop losses are expected in Russia (18.5 million tons), Ukraine (12 million tons), Turkey (1.37 million tons) and the EU (8.575 million tons). Argentina improves its figures to 5 million tons. Sunflower processing will decrease slightly - to 54.1 million tons, but will still remain 3.7% higher than last year.

Despite the general adjustments, the world oilseed market remains sensitive to supply fluctuations. The decline in soybean and sunflower production continues to put pressure on the market, forming a trend towards a decline in world prices.

In the context of Ukraine, the situation remains tense. Although weather conditions are slowing down the harvest, demand for sunflower is growing - processing enterprises are forced to purchase raw materials in advance, which contributes to an increase in domestic prices for seeds.