Ukraine has shown strong results in pea production this year - more than 626 thousand tons were harvested from an area of ​​266 thousand hectares, which is almost a third higher than last year's figures. However, the prospects for the export of this crop may significantly deteriorate after the decision of the government of India - the world's largest importer of legumes. From November 1, 2025, the country is introducing a 30% duty on yellow pea imports, which, according to analysts, will lead to a decrease in world prices and a decrease in the profitability of Ukrainian exporters.

According to the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine, tax benefits will only be granted to those consignments of goods for which the bill of lading (shipping document) will be dated no later than October 31, 2025. All other shipments that cross the customs border later will be subject to a new duty. This creates a risk of accumulation of goods in warehouses and increased competition among suppliers.

Despite this, Ukrainian analysts expect that pea exports by the end of the 2025/26 season may exceed 500 thousand tons. For comparison, in the previous marketing year, exports amounted to 376 thousand tons, and domestic consumption remains stable — about 70–75 thousand tons per year. The main buyers of Ukrainian peas are now Turkey, India and Italy. However, in the ranking of suppliers to India, Ukraine has already dropped from third place in the pre-war years to sixth–seventh.

Changes in the market are already noticeable: at the beginning of the 2025/26 season, purchase prices for peas with delivery to Black Sea ports were $275–280 per ton (or UAH 13,500–14,000/t). However, after the news of the imposition of the duty, the price fell to $260–270 per ton (approximately UAH 12,500–13,000/t). This trend indicates that market players expect prices to fall further.

The Indian government argues its decision by the need to protect the domestic market. In recent years, the country has significantly increased imports of pulses, which has led to a drop in domestic prices and dissatisfaction among farmers. In the 2025 fiscal year alone, India imported about 6.7 million tons of pulses, including 2.2 million tons of yellow peas, mainly from Canada, Australia and Russia. Previously, imports were duty-free until March 31, 2026, but pressure from farmers' associations forced the government to reconsider its policy.

At the same time, China, another major consumer of pulses, remains an important player in the global market. The country imports about 1.5 million tons of peas annually, but its main suppliers are Russia and Canada, each of which exports about 2 million tons of this crop. For Ukraine, this means that competition in Asian markets will only intensify, and the search for new sales areas will become a strategic task for the coming year.

Thus, the introduction of a duty on yellow peas by India could significantly change the balance of the world legume market. For Ukrainian farmers, this means the need for a more flexible export policy, diversification of supply routes and careful planning of production in the next season.