The sunflower oil market in Ukraine continues to demonstrate a steady growth in prices, which is associated with a decrease in harvest forecasts and farmers' reluctance to actively sell raw materials. In such conditions, Ukrainian processors are taking advantage of the situation, receiving high profits from exporting products against the background of stable external demand. This is evidenced by data from the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine.

Over the past week, demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil have risen by another $20–30 per ton, reaching $1,250–1,265/t with delivery to ports in November. At the same time, factories are offering sales on an FCA basis at a price of about $1,250/t, which demonstrates high interest from buyers even at current cost levels.

Demand in the European direction also remains consistently high. Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil delivered to the EU countries have increased to $1,340–1,360/t DAP, in particular in Italy and Greece. For comparison, the cost of Ukrainian rapeseed and soybean oil on the EU market (DAP Poland, Germany) is kept within $1,220–1,260/t, which indicates a higher competitive attractiveness of sunflower products.

At the same time, world markets are gradually becoming saturated with supply, and prices for alternative vegetable oils are showing a decline. Thus, palm oil quotes have fallen by 4.4% over the past seven days, to 4,317 ringgit/t (approximately $1,022/t). The main reason was the intensification of production in Malaysia and a reduction in export volumes. In the first 25 days of October, palm oil exports from the country decreased by 0.5–1% compared to September, which indicates a decrease in demand and may soon cool the sunflower oil market.

The Russian market is showing moderate growth: demand prices for sunflower oil in the Russian Federation have increased by $10–20/t and currently stand at $1,220–1,230/t FOB. This growth was supported by a higher sunflower harvest in the south of the country. Prices for sunflower oil supplies to India have also increased by $20–30/t, to $1,340–1,350/t CIF Mumbai.

The situation on the American market is somewhat different. December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1% to $1,107/t during the week, despite soybean quotes rising sharply by 4.7% amid expectations of a trade deal with China. This divergence suggests a decline in speculative interest in the soybean segment and a redistribution of investment demand between the main types of vegetable oils.

Thus, the current increase in prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine is temporary but significant. It is caused by a combination of local factors — a decline in the harvest, limited supply from farmers, and stable external demand. However, global trends — the saturation of the market with palm products and a gradual decline in prices for other types of oil — may soon lead to a stabilization of price pressure in this segment.