Over the past week, export prices for Ukrainian food wheat have decreased by 200–300 UAH/t, reaching 10,400–10,600 UAH/t ($219–224/t) for delivery to Black Sea ports. This decline occurred against the backdrop of global grain prices falling due to record harvests in Canada, the EU and Russia, which is intensifying competition on world markets, according to the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine.

Prices for feed wheat have also decreased by 100 UAH/t, to 9,500–9,600 UAH/t ($203–206/t). Overall, world wheat quotes have decreased by 3–4.9% over the month, which creates additional pressure on Ukrainian exporters.

Despite the decline in prices, many Ukrainian farmers are delaying the sale of their harvest, expecting prices to recover in the second half of the season. December futures are currently trading $5–10/t more expensive than September contracts, which encourages producers to hold stocks.

There are contradictory trends on the world market. In Chicago, wheat quotations increased by 2.2% due to record US export sales, which reached 12.15 million tons. At the same time, wheat prices in Kansas City, Minneapolis and Paris decreased, demonstrating different dynamics on different exchanges.

The competitor of Ukrainian wheat — Russian grain — also fell to \0–232/t FOB, which, combined with the decline in grain prices from France, Romania and Argentina, is putting additional pressure on Ukrainian exports. The most popular wheat on the world market remains American wheat, with prices rising to $222/t FOB.

Analysts note that low demand from importers and falling corn prices may keep pressure on the Ukrainian market in the coming months. At the same time, there is a possibility that importers will increase purchases, as current prices are at a seasonal minimum, which makes Ukrainian grain attractive for purchase.