The Ukrainian corn market is experiencing increased price pressure amid updated forecasts for the future harvest. July rains significantly improved the condition of corn crops, which changed the dynamics of price expectations in the market. Forward contracts for delivery in October-November, which were previously concluded at the level of 208-210 USD per ton, are now trading at 200-205 USD per ton to Black Sea ports. This information was published by the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine.

The price decrease against the background of improving weather conditions indicates a stable increase in grain supply. In particular, farmers and traders expect that a larger-than-expected corn harvest will increase the total volume on the market, which, in turn, will contribute to further pressure on prices.

First Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky said that in case of favorable weather conditions in August and September, the forecast for corn yield for 2025 could be increased from the current 26.5 million tons to 28 million tons. This means a potential exceedance of the level of the last marketing year, when Ukraine harvested 26.8 million tons of corn.

The forecast for wheat production is also subject to revision. According to Vysotsky, it could be increased from 21.2 million tons to 22 million tons if the weather is favorable. This additionally creates positive expectations for the total volume of grain production in the country.

In the 2024–2025 marketing year, Ukraine exported 22 million tons of corn. Given the current forecasts, this export volume could remain stable or even increase, especially if a competitive price position is maintained on the world market. This is important given that Ukrainian corn remains in demand both in Europe and in Asian and African countries.

Thus, the situation on the domestic agricultural market is closely linked to global trends and climatic conditions. The potential increase in corn production may increase competition between suppliers and lead to a further decrease in prices, but for Ukraine it is also a chance to strengthen its position on the international grain market.