Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 15.1% in annual terms in April 2025, but its gradual decline is expected in the coming months. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, inflationary pressure should decrease in the near future due to the arrival of a new harvest, a better situation in the energy sector and the impact of monetary policy measures. At the same time, the regulator emphasizes several significant risks that may slow down this process.

According to the NBU, May was the likely peak of inflationary growth. Spring frosts that hit the agricultural sector were one of the factors driving up prices for vegetables and fruits of the new harvest. Despite the decline in core inflation in April, in May it began to grow again due to stable consumer demand and an increase in production costs, in particular for labor.

The regulator also draws attention to the decline in public interest in the topic of inflation, which, according to NBU analysts, is reflected in the relevant search statistics. This trend indicates either a certain adaptation of the population to rising prices, or an expectation of their stabilization.

In the baseline scenario, the NBU predicts that inflation will decrease in most product groups in the summer and will gradually approach the medium-term target of 5%. This will be facilitated by more stable energy supplies, lower world oil prices, weakening external inflationary pressure, as well as the effect of the NBU's actions to contain the money supply and exchange rate stability.

However, the central bank warns of risks to the harvest due to adverse weather conditions, in particular spring frosts and possible summer anomalies. If the weather continues to negatively affect agriculture, this may postpone the expected price decline and even cause inflation to rise again in the fall.

The NBU is particularly concerned about the external environment. Increasing geopolitical instability, global trade disputes, and signs of deglobalization may undermine external demand, which threatens not only inflation rates but also the stability of international financing. In the event of deterioration in global market conditions, the Ukrainian economy may lack important support.

According to the NBU’s previous forecasts, inflation will reach 8.4% at the end of 2025 and return to the target level of 5% in 2026. At the same time, real gross domestic product should grow by 3.6% in 2025, and in 2026–2027, GDP growth is expected to be 4% annually. However, achieving these indicators will largely depend on weather conditions, the stability of external markets, and further monetary policy actions.