China is at risk of its lowest harvest in seven years due to a prolonged drought in key wheat-growing regions. Deteriorating weather conditions have negatively affected this year's grain harvest compared to a record 140 million tons harvested last year, Bloomberg reported, underscoring the seriousness of the situation in the world's largest wheat producer.

Despite the adverse weather conditions, large domestic stocks and weak demand could partially compensate for the supply shortage in the market. Forecasts for 2025 indicate that the total wheat harvest will be between 133 million and 135 million tons, which is the lowest figure since 2018, when 131 million tons were harvested.

The Chinese government is actively working to reduce its dependence on external suppliers due to geopolitical risks and trade disputes with the United States, one of the leading wheat exporters. In particular, in March, Beijing imposed a 15% import tariff on American grain. As a result, wheat imports fell to a seven-year low of just over one million tons in the first four months of 2025.

Climate change is causing extreme weather events, forcing China to quickly adjust its logistics supply chains. Wheat is a strategic food product in the country - it is used to make noodles, dumplings, and as a feed additive for animals.

The worst situation was in the northern regions, which are centers of wheat production, in particular in the provinces of Henan and Shaanxi. Here in May, precipitation fell significantly below normal, and some areas were recognized as areas of exceptional drought according to the Chinese assessment system. These weather conditions significantly weakened the development of crops.

In addition, farmers note an increase in the spread of pests that affect wheat seedlings. Due to limited access to effective pest control products, pest control becomes more difficult, which adds risks to the overall crop.