Price pressure and logistical barriers: why Ukrainian corn is losing its position on the world market

Ukraine has traditionally been among the world's top three corn exporters, but in the 2024/2025 marketing year, the situation has changed not in favor of domestic farmers. Despite the high harvest and farmers' willingness to supply foreign markets, Ukrainian corn is losing its price attractiveness compared to American and Brazilian counterparts.

The main reason is the higher cost of logistics. Due to limited access to Black Sea ports and dependence on rail and road transport to the EU, the cost of delivering Ukrainian corn has increased. This leads to the fact that the FOB (Free on Board) price for Ukrainian grain is higher than that of competitors. For example, American corn on the Chinese market is $10–15 per ton cheaper than Ukrainian, which significantly affects the choice of importers.

Another factor is Brazil's aggressive pricing policy. In the 2023/2024 marketing year, Brazil set a record for corn exports — more than 56 million tons. Excess supply and state support for logistics infrastructure allowed Brazilian traders to sell grain at competitive prices. In particular, Brazil is actively conquering the markets of Southeast Asia, which were previously focused on Ukraine.

At the same time, American farmers have stable access to domestic and foreign logistics routes, which allows them to maintain a lower final cost of products. In addition, thanks to the concluded trade agreements, the United States is reducing customs barriers in many key markets, including Japan, South Korea and Mexico.

Ukrainian exporters are trying to maintain their positions thanks to flexibility in supplies and high quality grain. However, without systemic solutions to improve logistics, in particular, expanding the capacity of ports and railways, as well as reducing transportation costs, it is becoming increasingly difficult to compete on equal terms.

As a result, if Ukraine does not restore the competitiveness of its logistics infrastructure, the country risks losing a significant part of its traditional export markets. This will hit not only farmers' profits, but also the overall economic balance of the country, where the agricultural sector is a key source of foreign exchange earnings.