What awaits milk prices in Ukraine

During May 2025, the situation on the Ukrainian milk market remained stable, despite the surplus of dairy raw materials. Thanks to the active export of finished products to the European Union countries, producers kept the level of purchase prices almost unchanged. This was reported by the press service of the Association of Milk Producers (AVM).

AVM analysts recorded a slight decrease in the average purchase price of extra-grade milk - to 16.12 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 3 kopecks less than a month earlier. In different farms, this figure ranged from 15.50 to 16.50 UAH/kg. Premium milk was traded within 15.30–16.20 UAH/kg, with an average of 15.93 UAH/kg - also minus 2 kopecks compared to April.

The first grade remained stable in price: 15.60 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The lowest purchase price was 15.00 UAH/kg, and the highest was 15.80 UAH/kg, and these indicators have not changed over the past month. Thus, the weighted average price of the three main grades of milk was 15.97 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is only 3 kopecks lower than in April.

However, AVM analysts warn: the current price level may be unstable in the near future. In particular, the planned renewal of duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU on June 6 may lead to a decrease in dairy exports, which, in turn, will put pressure on purchase prices within the country.

In addition, the situation is affected by the growth in domestic consumption of imported cheeses, the share of which has already reached 47% on the Ukrainian market. This creates additional competition for local producers and increases the risk of a decrease in purchase prices for raw milk.

At the same time, experts believe that there will be no sharp collapse in prices in the near future. In June, domestic exporters will still have access to duty-free quotas in the EU, which will allow maintaining a balance between demand and supply. In addition, the seasonal decline in milk yields caused by rising temperatures and reduced lactation in cows should help keep prices at a stable level.