Ukrainian rapeseed is becoming «golden»: demand is growing, supply is limited

Ukrainian traders and processors have stepped up purchases of new crop rapeseed against the backdrop of a shortage of this crop and stable demand from European partners. The situation on the market is gradually taking on the features of a price hype, and the concluded export contracts already significantly exceed the volumes of actual purchases.

This is stated in the analytical report of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, which operates under the auspices of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council. Analysts note that despite the temporary lull on European exchanges due to the Easter holidays, the rapeseed market in Ukraine remains quite dynamic and tense.

According to their data, on the European market, prices for new crop rapeseed are currently at the level of 475–480 euros per ton. If this price barrier is overcome, further increases in quotations to 500–510 euros per ton are possible. At the same time, the Ukrainian market shows even higher indicators - conditional prices with delivery in July-August to ports fluctuate within 510-515 US dollars per ton excluding VAT.

Processing enterprises are ready to pay even more: 535-545 dollars per ton including VAT. In some cases, there are even offers at the level of 550-560 dollars. Such high activity is explained by a significant imbalance in the market: according to experts, the volume of concluded contracts is 1.7-1.8 million tons, while only 1.3 million tons have been purchased. This creates a deficit of at least 100-500 thousand tons, which still needs to be covered.

According to experts, this deficit is the main factor in the increase in prices. Farmers are in no hurry to conclude forward contracts due to high risks and uncertainty. Most market players expect that the main part of trade this season will be carried out under spot agreements - that is, sales with immediate delivery.

The forecasted average seasonal price for rapeseed in the period July-September will fluctuate within 540-560 USD per ton on CPT-port terms. Market conditions are currently in favor of sellers, which opens up additional opportunities for farmers willing to take a break in anticipation of even higher prices.