Record coffee prices: what affected the market and what are the prospects?

Coffee prices have reached their highest level in the last half century, showing a serious increase due to adverse weather conditions in producing countries. According to Bloomberg, the cost of futures for Arabica coffee on the New York Stock Exchange jumped by 4.9%, reaching $ 3,434 per pound, which is a record since 1972. In total, the price increased by 80% for the year.

The main reason for such a rapid increase in prices was climatic problems in key coffee-growing regions. In Brazil, the world's largest supplier of Arabica, a drought continues, which significantly reduces the harvest. Vietnam, the leader in the production of Robusta, faced a shortage of moisture during the growth of coffee trees, and heavy rains at the beginning of the harvest only worsened the situation.

Experts from Volcafe Ltd. have lowered their forecasts for Brazil’s arabica production. The country is expected to produce 34.4 million bags of coffee next season, 11 million bags less than forecast in September. The cuts raise concerns about the stability of the global market.

The projected deficit could reach 8.5 million bags in the 2025-2026 season. If that happens, the market will experience its fifth consecutive year of shortages. Added to this are global logistical challenges that are further complicating the international supply of coffee.

The rise in coffee prices is putting serious pressure on businesses, including cafes and restaurants, which are being forced to raise prices for consumers. Some retailers are already refusing to offer discounts to maintain their financial positions. For example, Nestle SA has announced plans to increase prices and reduce packaging volumes to cut costs.

Coffee has been one of the most profitable commodities of the year, but its record price is a sign of deeper problems in the global market. The impact of adverse factors is expected to continue, creating new challenges for the industry and consumers around the world.