Corn prices in Ukraine are rising: main reasons and prospects

The pace of corn exports from Ukraine is slowing down due to reduced demand in the European Union and increased competition from South American producers. Despite this, in the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine has already exported 7.4 million tons of corn, which is 14% higher than the previous season.

At the same time, export demand prices for corn in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine increased by $2-3 per ton per week. Currently, they are $196-198 per ton, or 9,300-9,350 hryvnias. This increase in price is associated with a decrease in offers from producers, although demand from the EU remains limited due to the fall in the euro exchange rate and a decrease in domestic grain prices.

Experts emphasize that Ukrainian farmers should accelerate the sale of corn before the arrival of the main crop from South America. Competition on the global market is expected to intensify due to increased production in this region.

The European market is also showing stability. March corn futures in Paris have been at €206.75 per tonne (US$217) for the past month. The European Commission has raised its forecast for EU corn production to 59.6 million tonnes, just 3% below last year's harvest. The biggest adjustments concern Romania and France. At the same time, the forecast for EU corn imports has been increased to 19.5 million tonnes.

South America continues to strengthen its market position. In Brazil, according to Agroconsult, the 2024/25 corn harvest could reach a record 132.7 million tonnes, with exports reaching 42 million tonnes. Favorable weather conditions are conducive to the sowing of both the first and second crops. By early December, 65% of the planned area had already been sown.

Argentina also shows high prospects. The grain exchange BAGE indicated that 41.3% of the planned 6.3 million hectares of corn have been sown in the country. Most of the crops are in good or excellent condition, which gives reason to expect a good harvest.

The growth of production in South America is increasing the pressure on Ukrainian exporters. This requires Ukrainian farmers to be flexible in their sales strategies to make the most of favorable market conditions before the start of the active South American export season.