How a reduced grain harvest will affect the prospects for Ukraine's agricultural exports

Despite a reduced harvest of late crops in 2024, the Ukrainian government is optimistic about the prospects for agricultural exports. It is expected that in 2025, export volumes will increase by 7%, even with a decrease in the gross grain harvest.

This was reported by Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka. According to him, this forecast is realistic and has grounds for further revision towards growth. "This is an absolutely objective, even trivial forecast. More optimistic scenarios are possible," Kachka noted.

One of the key factors that will affect exports is a change in the crop structure. In particular, in 2024, the share of corn decreased, but the volumes of crops such as soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower increased significantly. These crops have consistently high prices on world markets, which compensates for the decrease in the total harvest. "These are the goods that bring in the most income, and such a crop structure opens up new opportunities for exports," the trade representative emphasized.

Another important factor is changes in world markets. Rising prices for grain and oilseed crops create the prerequisites for increasing foreign exchange earnings even with lower export volumes. "We see that earning more, even with lower volumes, is quite possible thanks to the right strategy," Kachka noted.

However, the National Bank of Ukraine is demonstrating more restrained forecasts. In its October Inflation Report, the NBU revised its estimate of growth in exports of goods and services in 2025 to only 0.9% (or $57.7 billion), compared to the previous forecast of 0.5%. At the same time, the bank noted that a smaller harvest and weak demand for IT services may limit export growth, and a more significant recovery is expected in 2026.

It is worth noting that in the first nine months of 2024, exports of goods and services increased by 8.4%, reaching $41.33 billion. In particular, exports of goods increased by 10.3% (to $28.64 billion), and services by 4.4% (to $12.69 billion). These indicators indicate a positive trend that may continue if favorable market conditions are maintained.

Thus, despite the challenges caused by the decrease in the harvest, Ukraine has the opportunity to compensate for losses due to a more profitable export structure and an increase in prices for key agricultural goods.