Hopes for a successful year for Ukrainian farmers

The 2024/2025 marketing year for Ukrainian farmers and grain traders has the potential to be more successful than the previous two seasons. This is possible provided that the grain corridor operates stably and the current security situation in the country is maintained. This opinion was expressed by Pavlo Koval, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC).

Prospects for agricultural exports in the 2024/2025 marketing year
According to Koval, three main factors may become growth points for agricultural exports this season. First, compared to the previous year, the current season looks more favorable due to the increase in world food prices and a lower burden on Ukraine's export infrastructure. At the same time, it is worth noting that the country's export potential remains significantly lower than in peacetime, when gross grain exports exceeded 100 million tons. It is expected that in the 2024/2025 MY, the gross harvest of grain, oilseed and leguminous crops will decrease by 8-10% compared to the previous season - to 69-70 million tons.

Conditions for maintaining export potential
Despite the decrease in the harvest, Ukrainian farmers have the opportunity to carry out unhindered exports if the destruction of infrastructure caused by Russia does not increase, as well as if the ports of Greater Odessa and the Danube maintain their current operating mode. The absence of additional restrictions on logistics will allow Ukraine to export the necessary volumes of the harvest, which is important for the stability of the agricultural market.

Prices for agricultural raw materials and crop structure
In the domestic market of Ukraine, farmers have more favorable prices for agricultural raw materials compared to the previous season. Provided that prices do not fluctuate significantly, the current season may be more successful than the previous two. The crop structure in 2024 has hardly changed compared to the last three years. However, farmers are adapting to new market conditions and are increasing the area under export-attractive crops such as soybeans, while the area under barley is decreasing due to difficulties in finding buyers abroad.

Markets for Ukrainian grain
Ukraine has already shown good export results to traditional European markets in the 2024/2025 MY, but it is also important to return to other continents. Among Ukraine's main competitors are Latin American countries, in particular Argentina and Brazil, as well as Canada, Australia, the EU and Russia. The General Director of the UAC notes that Ukrainian farmers should actively work on the African market, in particular in countries such as Egypt, Algeria and Pakistan.

Diversification of export channels
One of the key tasks for Ukrainian farmers is the diversification of export channels. This process has already begun and largely depends on the global economic situation, as well as Ukraine's ability to deliver to the three main continents where Ukrainian grain is waiting. For the successful development of exports, Ukrainian enterprises should pay attention to agricultural contracts with both state and private buyers.

Future prospects: focus on key markets
Pavlo Koval recommends focusing on maintaining and developing a presence in key markets. These include the countries of the European Union, in particular Spain, the Netherlands and Italy, as well as China, Indonesia and Turkey in Asia. In Africa, it is worth maintaining contact with Egypt, Libya, Algeria and Tunisia, which are important buyers of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Thus, the 2024/2025 season has every chance of becoming more successful for Ukrainian farmers if the positive situation on the markets remains and no new problems with logistics and security arise.