Bread prices in Ukraine will rise: how will the price change in the coming months

In November 2024, Ukrainians can expect another increase in bread prices, which will amount to 10 to 15%. According to the president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers and the head of the "Kyivhlib" company Yury Duchenko, if producers do not raise prices, they will be forced to reduce the volume of bread products supplied to the market. He told about this in an interview for "Ministry of Finance".

It should be noted that the increase in the price of bread did not become news for Ukrainians. In October 2024, bread prices have already increased by 5-10%. However, according to Duchenko, this is only an attempt to compensate for the significant increase in the cost of production, because almost all components of bread production costs continue to rise in price.

According to forecasts, flour prices in Ukraine will increase by another 11% by the end of 2024. Currently, bakers purchase flour at the price of 15.5-16 thousand hryvnias per ton, including VAT. In addition, the cost of logistics, gas and electricity is increasing, which also affects the final price of bread products.

Yuriy Duchenko explained that the price of flour has been rising since the spring of 2024, and although the new wheat crop has been harvested enough, the price situation leaves much to be desired. According to him, Ukraine no longer has last year's stocks of food wheat, and only 27% of the new crop is made up of these grains. At the same time, about 70% of this harvest is exported, which further stimulates the increase in grain and flour prices in Ukraine.

If bread prices are not increased, producers will face a shortage of funds for the purchase of raw materials in two weeks, which may lead to a reduction in production volumes. Thus, an increase in the cost of bread seems inevitable.

The decrease in bread consumption also plays a role in market processes. According to Duchenko, over the last year bread consumption in Ukraine fell by 5%. Demand drops especially sharply immediately after a price increase, although over time consumers get used to the new prices and consumption stabilizes a little. However, in general, according to the results of the year, the drop in demand for bread will still be noticeable.

The president of the bakers' association also noted that the November increase in the price of bread is likely to be the last in 2024. According to his forecasts, prices will not change in December.