The growth of the Ukrainian economy: the agricultural sector, transport and construction are among the key drivers

In September 2024, Ukraine's economy grew by 3.8% [±1%] compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, the total GDP growth was 4.5% [±1%], the Ministry of Economy reports. This result shows the gradual recovery of the economy, despite the serious challenges caused by the war.

Agriculture became one of the key factors of growth. Thanks to the early harvest of late crops, the agricultural sector made a significant contribution to the positive dynamics. In addition, significant increases were seen in the transportation and construction sectors, where critical infrastructure rehabilitation and repair projects continue.

Economy Minister Yuliya Svyridenko noted that optimism in many sectors of the economy is growing for the second month in a row. This applies, in particular, to trade, industry and construction. One of the main factors of such optimism is the stabilization of the situation in the energy sector, which contributes to the planning of further activities of enterprises.

The government's forecasts for 2024 foresee real GDP growth at the level of 3.5%, but according to the results of nine months, it was already possible to achieve an indicator of 4.5%. Among other positive trends, there is an increase in demand for engineering products, in particular in the military-industrial complex, as well as for construction materials and industrial goods for consumers.

The condition of the transport infrastructure is also improving due to the increase in the volume of rail transport and cargo traffic in seaports. This is directly related to the revival of industrial production and the activity of the construction industry, which continues to restore damaged roads and other critical infrastructure objects.

At the same time, the Ukrainian economy is facing difficulties. In particular, the shortage of qualified personnel negatively affects the pace of business development. However, despite Russia's military aggression, which has been going on for the third year, the Ministry of Economy predicts that by the end of 2024 GDP growth will be about 4.6%. Although the National Bank of Ukraine has more cautious forecasts, expecting 3% growth this year and 4.5% next year, attributing this to the consequences of attacks on energy infrastructure.