How the drought affected yields and prices: an analysis by the Ministry of Agriculture

The ongoing drought in Ukraine has not yet led to significant changes in crop yields and product prices. However, the negative consequences of this natural anomaly may be more noticeable in 2025, especially for winter crops.

First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyi told about it. He noted that Ukrainian farmers were able to adapt to the challenges of the war, and most categories of agricultural products in the country stabilized. This allows maintaining the domestic supply of vegetables, fruits and berries, which in turn keeps prices at a stable level. Therefore, such sharp price jumps as in 2022 are not expected in the near future.

At the same time, Vysotsky emphasized that seasonal price fluctuations are possible in the spring, when products are stored in warehouses. One of the key factors that will affect prices is the availability of electricity, because it depends on the storage of the crop and the maintenance of its quality.

Due to climate change and prolonged drought, the harvest of grain and oil crops will decrease by 12% in 2024. This especially affected the production of fodder crops, which, in turn, caused a decrease in milk production. High demand for dairy products against the background of reduced production led to higher prices in this market segment.

However, the situation remains stable in other branches of agriculture. The production of poultry meat, pork, cattle and eggs did not undergo significant changes, which makes it possible to maintain the prices of these products without significant fluctuations.

Vysotsky noted particularly positively the forecasts for the sugar beet harvest. According to the Ministry's estimates, this year's sugar production will reach 1.6 million tons, with domestic consumption at the level of 900,000 tons. This will not only satisfy the needs of the country, but also open opportunities for the export of surplus products.

As for buckwheat, its harvest will be smaller, but thanks to significant reserves last year, the Ukrainian market will be provided with the required amount of this crop.