Prospects of Ukraine on the world corn market: analysis, forecast and price trends

Prospects of Ukraine on the world corn market: analysis, forecast and price trends

At a fundamental level, the global corn market is expected to be driven by issues surrounding Ukraine's exports, Brazilian farmers' crops and weather conditions in Argentina. If the positive forecasts come true, this could have a significant impact on the global market, especially given the large amount of corn that remains in US warehouses.

It is reported that corn prices on Ukrainian markets in the direction of Black Sea ports have stabilized. According to the data of the analytical company Spike Brokers, the trading of this grain is recorded in the range from 142 to 147 dollars per ton.

To the west of the border of Ukraine, the period of active corn trading is approaching. The possibility of selling this agricultural product during the last days is estimated at 135 to 150 euros per ton FCA. These offers are valid for goods loaded on European trains at the border with Hungary, Slovakia and Romania.

The Italian market is also interested in Ukrainian corn. According to market analysts, the price of this grain is $223 per ton CIF on the east coast of Italy. While the delivery of corn by road and rail to Italy is regulated within 210-220 euros per ton.

Global price trends indicate the arrival of signals from buyers. Prices for DAP (Danube) corn are estimated at 152-157 $/t, in Odesa - 142-147 $/t, FCA (ex. border) - 135-150 €/t, DAP (ex. border) - 125- 135 $/t, DAP (Germany, mon.) - 195-205 €/t, DAP (Italy, mon.) - 215-220 €/t, CIF (Italy, port) - 220-223 $/t, and CIF (Spain, port) - $219-222/t.

According to forecasts of USDA experts, the corn harvest in Ukraine in the 2023/24 billion tons season will amount to 29.5 million tons, which is an increase of 1.5 million tons. The export forecast also rose by 0.5 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes, while ending stocks could increase by 1 million tonnes to 6.43 million tonnes.

These forecasts indicate Ukraine's potential impact on the world corn market, ensuring stable supplies and influencing global price dynamics. Ukraine has an opportunity to strengthen its position as a key player in the world market of agricultural products.

It is also necessary to take into account the competitiveness of other players, in particular Brazilian farmers, who have the task of timely coping with the increased crop of Safrina corn. This could affect the global supply balance and, consequently, prices.

Ukraine, which maintains export stability and increases production volumes, can determine trends in the world corn market in the near future. This is an important moment for the agricultural sector of the country and for the global agricultural economy as a whole.