Agricultural producers of Ukraine: forecast for 2024

The Ukrainian agro-industrial sector is facing a challenge: if the situation in the industry remains unchanged, half of agricultural producers may go bankrupt by 2024.

Trader and former MP Ivan Miroshnichenko warns about this in his blog "The EU grain blockade: how to prevent the bankruptcy of half of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises in 2024" on AgroPolit.com. Miroshnichenko emphasizes that the process of mass bankruptcy in the agro-industrial complex has already begun.

If decisive measures are not taken to restore the operation of deep-sea ports, reduce insurance tariffs for freight and artificial rates for transshipment, as well as reduce tariffs in ports, then without significant help from the state in 2024, approximately 50% of agricultural producers will experience bankruptcy or change of ownership.

According to Miroshnichenko, during 2022-2023, 20% of agricultural companies changed owners. He also emphasizes that currently the majority of agricultural producers are facing general negative dynamics and losses.

According to the trader's calculations, only 20-30% of agricultural enterprises remain profitable due to high-tech production, high yields and vertical integration in the field of export or processing. Miroshnichenko warns that without making drastic changes in the field, structural changes in production will lead to average unprofitability at the level of $100 to $250 per hectare in 2023-2024.